Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-13 10.749223 13.250709 16.067688 19.454361 23.393798 27.809797 33.111445
2025-04-20 7.240535 10.425231 14.451293 19.821326 26.693806 35.086972 45.993036
2025-04-27 5.436807 8.860731 13.595102 20.414800 29.755159 41.851327 58.414861
2025-05-04 4.321722 7.846457 13.106198 21.176227 32.841456 48.649636 71.170984
2025-05-11 3.461055 6.956240 12.550977 21.632401 35.389580 54.765831 83.298647
2025-05-18 2.702323 6.019228 11.710041 21.461069 36.896410 59.421112 93.597736
2025-05-25 2.041308 5.066201 10.639743 20.720420 37.377197 62.524492 101.773457
2025-06-01 1.606721 4.420194 9.959810 20.481575 38.540397 66.622732 111.528538
2025-06-08 1.197598 3.696907 8.987521 19.572437 38.471823 68.764186 118.405592
2025-06-15 1.022339 3.453876 8.894287 20.209611 41.006645 75.077305 131.896567
2025-06-22 0.776885 2.949043 8.160970 19.531973 41.176785 77.574521 139.544778
2025-06-29 0.673254 2.791870 8.145480 20.237181 43.835710 84.254753 154.072476
2025-07-06 0.444736 2.181401 7.009390 18.613350 42.277783 84.123941 158.222984
2025-07-13 0.357772 1.987151 6.837018 19.008228 44.583507 90.787003 173.959959
2025-07-20 0.294200 1.842484 6.755855 19.584702 47.279670 98.277032 191.426817
2025-07-27 0.246864 1.734950 6.748384 20.321350 50.344491 106.578734 210.627854
2025-08-03 0.200320 1.599365 6.625739 20.762674 52.833217 113.963428 228.571146
2025-08-10 0.150717 1.407083 6.278123 20.596916 54.029546 119.028194 242.700228
2025-08-17 0.104354 1.181350 5.750082 19.880466 53.965600 121.712563 252.738936
2025-08-24 0.076100 1.032408 5.430164 19.649460 54.922134 126.356168 266.429171
2025-08-31 0.049254 0.847742 4.909295 18.770322 54.322906 127.935718 274.628551
2025-09-07 0.040302 0.802464 4.914364 19.386443 57.210325 136.497073 295.912310
2025-09-14 0.026072 0.671063 4.511947 18.731200 57.040820 138.947545 305.986606